Friday, May 15, 2009

Can the Congress and the BJP come together to form a government with a development agenda?

Indians have voted, and the exit polls are out. Counting starts Saturday morning, and by evening the composition of the Lok Sabha should be more or less clear. The parties have already started jockeying for power, working out different permutations and combinations to get to 272. The media is rife with speculation - will the UPA form the government, will the NDA, or the third or even the fourth front, with each of the options twistingly convoluted with many partners, who may jump ship at the smallest provocation or opportunity? And all the four groups look shaky with wavering commitments from members to group unity. Is this the recipe for a stable government focused on national development? Most obviously, not.

So why dont we get out of the Indian political box and think of the unthinkable - a Congress-BJP coalition government at the centre with a three-point agenda - 1) Economic Development, 2) Social Justice and 3) National security. Is this such a far-fetched idea?

There is really only one major sticking point between them - that of the issue of secularism vs. Hindutva. But this can be something that can be resolved by keeping this issue out of the coalition's common programme for the next five years. This is not so unthinkable, especially since most of BJP's partners in the NDA and any potential partner who may join a BJP led coalition would demand this anyway. This is a price that the Congress too can exact from the BJP a price that the BJP would have to accept no matter who its coalition partners are. And by keeping this issue out of the common programme, Congress can mitigate any impacts on its minority base.

There are two other more minor issues. First, is around the question of how the parties deal with the states where they compete against each other? This issue is not insurmountable. The Germans have a grand national coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, even though they oppose each other in individual German Lander or states. And the Congress and BJP face similar issues with other potential regional allies they compete against in individual states. Both parties can still fight elections on their own, but govern in a coalition at the centre.

Second is the question of who will be the Prime Minister? This can be resolved in either of two ways. Either the parties can agree that the Prime Minister comes from the party with more seats in the Lok Sabha, and then agree to a 50-50 split of ministers. Or they can agree on a rotating system, with each party getting the post for half the term.

While the barriers to such a coalition are few and manageable, the advantages are many. First, the country will have a stable government, with predictable governance and policies that are are good for long term development. Second, this will truly be a national government, rather than a collection of regional barons. This will be good for the country's unity and stability in the long term. Potentially, some of the smaller parties may then decide to merge with one or the other national party, especially if they want to be in power.

Third, it would avoid small parties distorting policy by punching beyond their mandate and slowing the process of development down by extracting their pound of flesh. If we want to compete globally and match the performance of China, we need to stop small groups with little mandate put roadblocks on the path to development.

Fourth, there is no major difference in economic ideology between the Congress and the BJP. Both believe in relatively free markets, both promote a development agenda, and both espouse social justice. There will in fact be less difference between them, than between each national party and its allies.

Fifth, similar to economic policy, the gulf between them on national security and foreign policy is not big. Both believe in good relations with the US, and both understand the need for stronger national security. There may be some differences on the toughness of approach to national threats, but these differences are not unbridgeable.

Therefore, it makes a lot of sense for these two parties to come and form a national government that can focus on accelerate economic development in India. This would be in the best interests of the country, and also in the interests of the two parties, if they can get beyond a myopic view of the political landscape in India. They can form a government on day one, and they will not need any other partner, especially unsavoury and corrupt ones. And if other developmentally oriented parties want to join the coalition, they should be welcome to do so.

I hope they come together in the national interest and I hope the people of India raise their voices to get them to do so.

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