400 Million Indians Say Yes We Can Too

Paradoxically, by returning the incumbent Manmohan Singh government to power, 400 million Indian voters have brought about one of the largest changes that Indian democracy has witnessed. And in the process, they have sent a strong message - Democracy works full stop.

This election, I believe, is a watershed election that has brought about three major changes, which have the potential of dramatically reshaping the Indian political landscape in the years to come. First, it has conclusively established that more than anything, development matters to Indian voters. So far, they had shown this by kicking out failed governments consistently - most of the time an incumbent government in each state lost elections. And in cases where they had kept governments in power in consecutive elections like that of Lalu Yadav in Bihar, these had been due to caste and religious concerns.

But in this election, not only did the voters punish failed governments, but they also rewarded governments that are generally considered to be promoting development in the states they govern. The voters had done this in previous elections by returning Digvijay Singh in MP, Chandrababu Naidu in AP, and Narendra Modi in Gujarat, but this time the number of incumbents rewarded for performace has been far more widespread - the Congress in Delhi and Andhra Pradesh, the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the BJP in Karnataka and Gujarat and the BJD in Orissa. On top of this, the Congress performed better than expected across the country as there was a general perception that the Manmohan Singh government had performed reasonably well, especially given the restrictions placed on it by the Left and other fissiparous allies.

To reinforce this point, voters continued to punish parties that have, currently or in the recent past, failed on the development front - Lalu Yadav's RJD in Bihar, the Akali Dal in Punjab, the SP in UP, and most spectacularly, the Left across the country. This dramatic rebuff to the Left is the biggest sign that the voters are interested in inclusive economic progress that increases incomes across the board rather than redistributive stagnation. They have seen what has happened in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh and have compared it with what happens in West Bengal and Kerala, and have decided that they want more of the former and less of the latter.

I believe that this change has come about because in the last 20 years, more and more people have tasted the fruits of progress and the Indian middle class has been growing rapidly. This middle class, especially the young, who see the many opportunities that could be available to them if India continues on the path of economic progress, are driven less by ideology and more by pragmatic concerns about improving their and their families' economic well-being.

This brings me to the second key change in this election - the voters have rejected the politics of division by caste, religion and class. They rebuffed the SP and BSP in Uttar Pradesh in favour of Congress, they did not sway to Narendra Modi's exhortations outside of Gujarat (and even there delivered BJP fewer seats than expected), they rejected Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar, they rejected Vaiko in Tamil nadu, and they rejected the Left across the country. Therefore, while these divisions will not go away and narrow minded politicians will continue to exploit them, the voters have sent a message that development, rather than division is the path to political success.

The third key change is the strengthening of the national parties over the regional parties. The voters have voted for national stability and national unity. While the BJP has lost some seats compared to 2004, the combined total of the two national parties is higher than in 2004, and almost 60% of the total seats in the Lok Sabha. I hope this trend strengthens over time, and that there is a reduction in the fractiousness of the Indian polity. Some of this may come about by the merger of some of the smaller parties into the bigger ones, and some may come about as the national parties continue to strengthen their presence nationwide. In this sense, Rahul Gandhi was right to go it alone in UP, giving the Congress a base there that they can build on in future elections.

Where next?

For the Congress (and the rest of the UPA), they must redouble their efforts on inclusive growth, and accelerate the policy changes that can bring about this growth. Freed from the shackles imposed by the Left, they are well positioned to do this. And if they don't, they will not have an excuse when they go before the voters next time.

For the BJP, it must introspect and decide whether it wants to be a party of division or a party of development. It can never gain national acceptance as the former. As the latter, it has much more opportunity to grow nationally and pose a bigger challenge to the Congress, as it will have a wider base of support to draw upon, not just by growing as a party, but by reducing the number of potential allies who consider it untouchable. And they must start building the right set of next generation leaders who can take them forward. In this, they can take advantage of the fact that they are not led by a dynasty, and can therefore allow the best talent to emerge through internal democracy.

But all that is for tomorrow. Today, India has shown - Yes We Can Too.

Can the Congress and the BJP come together to form a government with a development agenda?

Indians have voted, and the exit polls are out. Counting starts Saturday morning, and by evening the composition of the Lok Sabha should be more or less clear. The parties have already started jockeying for power, working out different permutations and combinations to get to 272. The media is rife with speculation - will the UPA form the government, will the NDA, or the third or even the fourth front, with each of the options twistingly convoluted with many partners, who may jump ship at the smallest provocation or opportunity? And all the four groups look shaky with wavering commitments from members to group unity. Is this the recipe for a stable government focused on national development? Most obviously, not.

So why dont we get out of the Indian political box and think of the unthinkable - a Congress-BJP coalition government at the centre with a three-point agenda - 1) Economic Development, 2) Social Justice and 3) National security. Is this such a far-fetched idea?

There is really only one major sticking point between them - that of the issue of secularism vs. Hindutva. But this can be something that can be resolved by keeping this issue out of the coalition's common programme for the next five years. This is not so unthinkable, especially since most of BJP's partners in the NDA and any potential partner who may join a BJP led coalition would demand this anyway. This is a price that the Congress too can exact from the BJP a price that the BJP would have to accept no matter who its coalition partners are. And by keeping this issue out of the common programme, Congress can mitigate any impacts on its minority base.

There are two other more minor issues. First, is around the question of how the parties deal with the states where they compete against each other? This issue is not insurmountable. The Germans have a grand national coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, even though they oppose each other in individual German Lander or states. And the Congress and BJP face similar issues with other potential regional allies they compete against in individual states. Both parties can still fight elections on their own, but govern in a coalition at the centre.

Second is the question of who will be the Prime Minister? This can be resolved in either of two ways. Either the parties can agree that the Prime Minister comes from the party with more seats in the Lok Sabha, and then agree to a 50-50 split of ministers. Or they can agree on a rotating system, with each party getting the post for half the term.

While the barriers to such a coalition are few and manageable, the advantages are many. First, the country will have a stable government, with predictable governance and policies that are are good for long term development. Second, this will truly be a national government, rather than a collection of regional barons. This will be good for the country's unity and stability in the long term. Potentially, some of the smaller parties may then decide to merge with one or the other national party, especially if they want to be in power.

Third, it would avoid small parties distorting policy by punching beyond their mandate and slowing the process of development down by extracting their pound of flesh. If we want to compete globally and match the performance of China, we need to stop small groups with little mandate put roadblocks on the path to development.

Fourth, there is no major difference in economic ideology between the Congress and the BJP. Both believe in relatively free markets, both promote a development agenda, and both espouse social justice. There will in fact be less difference between them, than between each national party and its allies.

Fifth, similar to economic policy, the gulf between them on national security and foreign policy is not big. Both believe in good relations with the US, and both understand the need for stronger national security. There may be some differences on the toughness of approach to national threats, but these differences are not unbridgeable.

Therefore, it makes a lot of sense for these two parties to come and form a national government that can focus on accelerate economic development in India. This would be in the best interests of the country, and also in the interests of the two parties, if they can get beyond a myopic view of the political landscape in India. They can form a government on day one, and they will not need any other partner, especially unsavoury and corrupt ones. And if other developmentally oriented parties want to join the coalition, they should be welcome to do so.

I hope they come together in the national interest and I hope the people of India raise their voices to get them to do so.